According to @KobeissiLetter, Polymarket now prices a 68% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at the December meeting, with the odds explicitly sourced to Polymarket. According to @KobeissiLetter, this repricing followed the author’s report that the US Labor Department canceled the October jobs report, while the 68% figure comes from Polymarket. According to the IMF Global Financial Stability Report, tighter financial conditions and higher real yields have been associated with weaker performance in risk assets including crypto, suggesting potential short-term pressure on BTC and ETH if the no-cut odds stay elevated. According to IMF research, crypto’s correlation with broader financial conditions has increased since 2020, making Polymarket’s Fed path probabilities a relevant high-frequency gauge for BTC and ETH traders.